WALL STREET RAW RADIO WITH HOST, MARK LEIBOVIT – JUNE 24, 2017: GUESTS INCLUDE: CRAIG SMITH, HENRY WEINGARTEN, SINCLAIR NOE , DON VIALOUX AND DAN NICHOLLS AND ROLF AGATHER: http://tinyurl.com/ybkfq6xh The Bottom Line Equity markets around the world remain intermediate overbought and vulnerable to a correction. The usual period of summer weakness from Mid-June to Mid-October has arrived. However, volatility measured by the VIX Index remains relatively muted. Political events in a wide variety of countries (most notably in the U.S.) could change that quickly. Be careful out there! A spike in volatility will be the most likely sign that the summer correction has started. Meanwhile, holding a robust position in cash in your investment portfolio makes sense. Economic News This Week May Durable Goods Orders to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on Monday are expected to drop 0.6% versus a drop of 0.8% in April. Excluding transportation, May Durable Goods Orders are expected to increase 0.3% versus a decline of 0.5% in April. April Case/Shiller 20 City Home Price Index is to be released at 9:00 AM EDT on Tuesday. March was 5.8%. June Consumer Confidence to be released at 10:00 AM EDT on Tuesday is expected to slip to 115.4 from 117.9 in May. Weekly Jobless Claims is to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday. Last week was 241,000. U.S. First Quarter Revision is to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to show growth at an annual rate of 1.2%, same as the previous estimate May Personal Income to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday is expected to increase 0.1% versus a gain of 0.4% in April. May Consumer Spending is expected to increase 0.3% versus a gain of 0.4% in April. April Canadian Real GDP to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday is expected to increase 0.1% versus a gain of 0.5% in March. June Chicago PMI to be released at 9:45 AM EDT on Friday is expected to slip to 57.8 from 59.4 in May. June Consumer Sentiment to be released at 10:00 AM EDT on Friday is expected to remain unchanged from May at 94.5 Earnings News This Week Observations Trading activity is expected to diminish as the week progresses toward statutory holidays. Canadian exchanges are closed on Monday July 3rd and U.S. exchanges are closed on Tuesday July 4th. Technical action by S&P 500 stocks was mildly bullish last week: 56 stocks broke intermediate resistance and 24 stocks broke intermediate support. Breakouts were dominated by Health Care and Technology stocks. Breakdowns were dominated by Energy stocks. Number of stocks in an uptrend increased last week to 298 from 290, number of stocks in a neutral trend increased to 47 from 45 and number of stocks in a downtrend dropped to 155 from 165. The Up/Down ratio increased last week to (298/155=) 1.92 from 1.79. U.S. economic news this week is expected to record a slight slowdown in growth. Short term technical indicators (Momentum, above/below 20 day moving average) deteriorated last week for a wide variety of equity indices, commodities and sectors (particularly momentum). Medium term technical indicators (Percent trading above 50 day moving average, Bullish Percent Index) remained intermediate overbought. The S&P 500 Index has reached a seasonal peak either on June 15th or July 17th during the past 20 periods. The TSX Composite Index already has passed its seasonal peak near June 9th during the past 20 periods. A second peak is possible on July 17th The earnings and sales outlook for S&P 500 stocks remains promising (albeit at a slightly lower rate of growth): According to FactSet, 11 companies have reported second quarter results to date with 8 reporting higher than consensus earnings. Thanks to the positive earnings surprise by Oracle, consensus calls for a year-over-year gain in earnings by 6.6% (versus 6.5%) last week. Consensus for sales is an increase of 4.9%. 76 companies have issued negative guidance for the second quarter while 38 companies have issued positive guidance. Another 12 S&P 500 companies and one Dow Jones Industrial company are scheduled to release quarterly results this week. Beyond the second quarter, consensus offered by FactSet shows a 7.4% increase in third quarter earnings (down from 7.5% last week) and a 5.1% increase in sales (down from 5.2% last week. Fourth quarter earnings are expected to increase 12.4% and sales are expected to increase 5.1% (down from 5.2%) last week. For 2017, earnings are expected to increase 9.8% (down from 9.9% last week) and sales are expected to increase 5.4%. Quarter end “window dressing” this week is likely. Generally, the period when fund managers exchange their losers for winner during the week before end of the quarter is slightly positive for equity markets, particularly for outperforming sectors (e.g. Technology, Health Care). U.S. equity markets have a history of moving lower from mid-June to mid-October in Presidential cycle years after a two term President has been replaced (as indicated this year). See red line in the chart below. Equity Indices and Related ETFs Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for June 23rd 2017 Green: Increase from previous day Red: Decrease from previous day Calculating Technical Scores Technical scores are calculated as follows: Intermediate Uptrend based on at least 20 trading days: Score 2 Higher highs and higher lows Intermediate Neutral trend: Score 0 Not up or down Intermediate Downtrend: Score -2 Lower highs and lower lows Outperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score: 2 Neutral Performance relative to the S&P 500 Index: 0 Underperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score –2 Above 20 day moving average: Score 1 At 20 day moving average: Score: 0 Below 20 day moving average: –1 Up trending momentum indicators (Daily Stochastics, RSI and MACD): 1 Mixed momentum indicators: 0 Down trending momentum indicators: –1 Technical scores range from -6 to +6. Technical buy signals based on the above guidelines start when a security advances to at least 0.0, but preferably 2.0 or higher. Technical sell/short signals start when a security descends to 0, but preferably -2.0 or lower. Long positions require maintaining a technical score of -2.0 or higher. Conversely, a short position requires maintaining a technical score of +2.0 or lower. The S&P 500 Index added 5.16 points (0.21%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Index remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Percent of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50 day moving average (also known as the S&P 500 Momentum Barometer) dropped last week to 66.20 from 71.00. Percent remains intermediate overbought and showing signs of rolling over. Percent of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200 day moving average slipped last week to 74.20 from 75.20. Percent remains intermediate overbought and showing signs of rolling over. Bullish Percent Index for S&P 500 stocks increased last week to 72.40 from 70.20 and remained above its 20 day moving average. The Index remains intermediate overbought. Bullish Percent Index for TSX stocks increased last week to 64.26 from 64.00 and remained below its 20 day moving average. The Index remains intermediate overbought and trending down. The TSX Composite Index gained127.02 points (0.84%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down (Score: -2). Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative (Score: -2). The Index remains below its 20 day moving average (Score: -1. Short term momentum indicators turned higher on Friday (Score: 1). Technical score increased last week to -4 from -6. Percent of TSX stocks trading above their 50 day moving average (also known as the TSX Momentum Barometer) increased last week to 47.11 from 33.20. Percent has recovered to a Neutral level. Percent of TSX stock trading above their 200 day moving average increased last week to 54.55 from 50.82. Percent is neutral and trending down. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 10.48 points (0.05%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. The Average remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators have turned down. Technical score slipped last week to 4 from 6. Bullish Percent Index for Dow Jones Industrial stocks was unchanged last week at 76.67% and remained below its 20 day moving average. The Index remains intermediate overbought and trending down. Bullish Percent Index for NASDAQ Composite stocks increased last week to 62.34 from 59.72 and remained above its 20 day moving average. The Index remains intermediate overbought. The NASDAQ Composite Index added 113.49 points (1.84%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index improved on Friday to Neutral from Negative. The Index moved above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score increased last week to 4 from -2. The Russell 2000 Index added 8.02 points (0.57%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to Neutral from Positive. The Index remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Technical score slipped last week to 2 from 4. Dow Jones Transportation Average dropped 25.40 points (0.27%) last week. Intermediate trend remains Neutral. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to Neutral from Positive. The Average remained above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Technical score dropped last week to 0 from 4. The Australia All Ordinaries Composite Index dropped 53.40 points (0.92%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Neutral. The Index dropped back below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Technical score dropped last week to-4 from 0. The Nikkei Average gained 189.41 points (0.95%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Neutral. The Average remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Technical score increased last week to 2 from 0. Europe iShares dropped $1.00 (2.21%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Negative. Units remained below their 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Technical score remained last week at -2. The Shanghai Composite Index added 34.70 points (1.11%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remained Neutral. The Index remained above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Technical score remained last week at -2. Emerging Markets iShares added $0.27 (0.65%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index improved last week to Neutral from Negative. Units moved above their 20 day moving average on Friday. Short term momentum indicators have turned up. Technical score improved last week to 4 from –2 Currencies The U.S. Dollar Index dropped 0.21 (0.22%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. The Index moved below its 20 day moving average on Friday. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. The Euro was unchanged last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Euro remained below its 20 day moving. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. The Canadian Dollar slipped US 0.28 cents (0.37%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. The Canuck Buck remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators turned down on Friday. The Japanese Yen dropped 0.36 (0.40%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Yen moved below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. The British Pound dropped 0.58 (0.45%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Pound remained below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Commodities and Related ETFs Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for June 23rd 2017 Green: Increase from previous day Red: Decrease from previous day * Excludes adjustment from rollover of futures contracts The CRB Index dropped 5.31 points (4.07%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Negative. The Index remains below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Technical score remained last week at -6. Gasoline dropped 2.8 cents per gallon (1.93%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Negative. Gas remains below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Technical score remains at –6 Crude Oil dropped $1.96 per barrel (4.36%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Negative. Crude remains below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Technical score remains at -6. Natural Gas dropped $0.11 per MBtu (3.62%) last week. Intermediate trend remains Negative. “Natty” remains below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum remains down. Technical score remained last week at -2. The S&P Energy Index dropped 14.12 points (2.89%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Negative. The Index moved below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Technical score dropped last week to -6 from 0. The Philadelphia Oil Services Index dropped 8.25 points (6.06%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Negative. The Index remains below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators have turned down. Technical score dropped last week to -6 from -4. Gold slipped $0.10 per ounce (0.01%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Negative. Gold remains below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators turned higher on Friday. Technical score increased last week to 0 from -2. Silver eased $0.01 per ounce (0.06%) last week. Intermediate trend remains neutral. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Negative. Silver remains below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators turned up on Friday. Technical score increased last week to -2 from -4. The AMEX Gold Bug Index gained 8.24 points (4.43%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed on Friday to Neutral from Negative. The Index moved above its 20 day moving average on Friday. Short term momentum indicators have turned up. Technical score increased last week to 0 from -6. Platinum added $2.60 per ounce (0.28%) last week. Trend remains down. Relative strength remains Negative. Trades below its 20 day MA. Momentum remains down. Palladium dropped $9.00 per ounce (1.04%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Positive. PALL remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Technical score remained at -4. Copper gained $0.60 cents per lb. (2.34%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Neutral. Copper moved above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score increased last week to 0 from -4. The BMO Base Metal ETF gained $0.23 (2.52%) last week. Intermediate trend changed to down from neutral on a move below $9.06. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Negative. . Units remain below their 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators have turned up. Technical score remained last week at -4. Lumber added $0.30 (0.08%) last week. Trend remains down. Relative strength remains Neutral. Lumber remains above its 20 day MA. Momentum turned down. Score dropped to 0. Grain ETN dropped $1.43 (5.00%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to Negative. Units dropped below their 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Technical score dropped to -6. The Agriculture ETF dropped $0.69 (1.23%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to Neutral from Positive. Units dropped below their 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Technical score dropped last week to 0 from 4. Interest Rates Yield on 10 Year Treasuries dropped 1.3 basis points (0.60%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Yield remains below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Price of the long term Treasury ETF gained $1.43 (1.13%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Units remain above their 20 day moving average. Volatility The VIX Index dipped 0.35 (3.37%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. The Index remains below its 20 day moving average. Sectors Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for June 23rd 2017 Green: Increase from previous day Red: Decrease from previous day StockTwits Released on Friday @EquityClock Health Care sector index testing trend channel resistance, on track for the best weekly gain since the U.S. election. See http://www.equityclock.com/2017/06/22/stock-market-outlook-for-june-23-2017/ Technical action by S&P 500 stocks to 10:00: Quietly bearish. Breakdowns: $FOX $TXT $LOW Editor’s Note: After 10:00 AM EDT, breakouts included WDC and FBHS. Breakdowns included NOV, CNP, COST and PPL. Corn ETN $CORN moved below $18.47 extending an intermediate downtrend. TransAlta $TA.CA moved above a 7 month consolidation pattern on a trade above $8.03, New Home Sales rebound in May, up 1.8% diverging from average decline of 0.6%. Intact Financial $IFC.CA moved above $96.24 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend. Software iShares $IGV moved above $141.46 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend. CGI Group $GIB, a TSX 60 stock moved above US$51.29 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend. Home Depot $HD, a Dow Jones Industrial stock moved below $151.73 completing a double top pattern. Keith Richards’ Blog Keith says, Big Oil looks ready to bounce. Following is a link: http://www.valuetrend.ca/oil-looks-ready-bounce/ Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed