Observations Commodity prices moved to a five month high thanks mainly to a spike in energy prices StockTwits Released Yesterday December, best risk/reward month of year for stocks, as seen S&P 500 Index average 1.4% Editor’s Note: See full study at http://www.equityclock.com/2016/11/30/stock-market-outlook-for-december-1-2016/ The study based on 66 years of data shows average return per period for the S&P 500 Index is -0.13% (positive 52% of periods) in the first half of the month and 1.59% positive 80% of periods) in the second half of the month. Best performing sectors were Materials, Industrials and Utilities. Natural gas moved above $3.37 to $3.41 pre-opening extending intermediate uptrend. $UNG Good for “gassy” stocks. Editor’s Note: Natural gas prices further spiked following release of a greater than expected weekly drawdown in inventories (50 Bcf). ‘Tis the season for natural gas to move higher to mid-December. Technical action by S&P 500 stocks to Noon: Bearish. 11 stocks broke intermediate resistance and 20 stocks broke intermediate support. Editor’s Note: Technical action by S&P 500 stocks turned more bearish after Noon. Breakouts: SBUX and TWX. Breakdowns: EFX, DUK, KORS, CHD, A, TDC, AES, PCG, MCO, EA, EBAY, QCOM. Note that Howard Shultz announced plans after the close to step down next spring as CEO of Starbucks. The stock quickly dropped 7%. More “gassy” stocks and ETFs breaking resistance extending intermediate uptrends. $PXD, $FCG, $ZJN.CA, $VET.CA Notable on list of S&P 500 stocks breaking support: Consumer Staples: $AVP $GIS $K $KO $PEP $PM $TAP Consumer Staples SPDRs $XLP broke below support at $50.21 extending intermediate downtrend. Agriculture ETF $MOO moved above $51.36 extending intermediate uptrend. ‘Tis the season for strength to early January! Bad technical break below $109.48 by Software iShares $IGV establishing new intermediate downtrend. S&P Utility stocks are prominent on the list of stocks breaking intermediate support: $AES $DUK $PCG $SO . Trader’s Corner Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for December 1st 2016 Green: Increase from previous day Red: Decrease from previous day Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for December 1st 2016 Green: Increase from previous day Red: Decrease from previous day Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for December 1st 2016 Green: Increase from previous day Red: Decrease from previous day Keith Richards Blog Following is a link: http://www.valuetrend.ca/oil-still-needs-break-neckline/ Note invitation to the next meeting of the Toronto chapter of CSTA Interesting Seasonality Chart from www.EquityClock.com Commodity prices have a history of bottoming at this time of year for an upward move to April. Note the high correlation between the CRB Index and the period of time when the TSX Composite Index outperforms the S&P 500 Index from early December to early March. Look for history to repeat S&P Momentum Barometer The Barometer slipped another 3.20 to 58.60 yesterday. It remains overbought with an intermediate uptrend. TSX Momentum Barometer The Barometer slipped 0.83 to 55.00 yesterday. It remains slightly overbought with an intermediate uptrend. Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report by www.timingthemarket.ca and www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed